Pistons (10-4) @ Indiana (7-8): Line IND(-1.5)
Play: Pistons (+1.5). Both teams have out played expectations but give me the Pistons here, they play solid defense, and I like the way they match up against Indiana.
Clippers (5-8) @ Cle (8-7): OU 222
Play: Over. Cleveland plays no defense and the Clippers are a team that can put up points. Both these teams stink right now which is my favorite time to hammer the over.
Utah (6-9) @ Nets (5-9): Line UTA(-1.5)
Play: Nets (+1.5). 85% of the public is betting on Utah, and Nets as a home dog? That’s the type of sentence that really revs my engine, two of my favorite rules of thumb when it comes to betting. Also a little bonus play on this game for you kids following at home, Over 207.5, 70% of the public betting the under and the line opened at 211.5, no Gobert for the Jazz, my god I may bet my mortgage on these two picks.
NOP (8-7) @ Den (8-6): OU 220
Play: Under 220. 91% of the public is betting the over in this game, which has caused this line to move 4 points. I don’t like betting the under but when the stars align like this who am I to ignore them.
Saturday betting for me is primarily reserved for betting NCAA football, and is recent weeks I’ve been betting alot of parlays, which can be fun if you hit because you can win a shit load on a small bet but can ruin your day if you get 6 right and than miss on the last game of the night, or worse the first game. The reason I say this is because I will be giving my picks for some of the bigger games or some games I think should be played and I will be adding in a 5-7 game parlay at the end that I’ll be playing.
MICH (8-2) @ WISC. (10-0): Line WISC(-7.5)
Play: WISC (-7.5). 57% of the public is on Michigan, and I’ve heard a lot of people saying Wisconsin is over rated and that they haven’t played anyone, and while that may be true, Michigan is trash. They haven’t beat a good opponent this year, and this is a game where Wisconsin is going to want to come out and make a statement against a top 25 team. Also I don’t have any stats to back this up but I’m pretty sure Wisconsin hasn’t lost a regular season game in 4 years, look for them to cover easy.
SMU (6-4) @ MEM (8-1): OU 71.5
Play: Over 71.5. The public loves the under in this game and it has caused the line to drop 4 points from where it opened. Both these teams run a shit ton of plays, score a shit ton of points and play very lackluster defense. The high number might cause some people to be nervous about going with the over but I think this game can hit this mark easily.
TEX (5-5) @ WVU (7-3): Line WVU(-3)
Play: WVU (-3). WVU while a long shot is still in play to play in the BIG 12 Championship, and only 3 point favorites at home to Texas seems insulting. Everyone keeps wanting to say Texas is back baby because they remember the glory days of Colt McCoy, David Ash, Case McCoy and Tyrone Swoopes, but the fact of the matter is Todd Herman should have stayed in Houston and West Virginia is gonna cover easy.
Army (8-2) @ UNT (7-3): Line UNT(-2.5)
Play: Army (+2.5). Having Army as an underdog is Vegas essentially saying they don’t respect the troops and think Al Queda is gonna win this war. Well I got some news for you Vegas, Bin Ladan is dead and the Army triple option is going to make UNT’s defense look like swiss cheese or Bin Ladans head after he died, which ever visual works best for you.
PARLAY OF THE WEEK:
WYO (+2.5), GT(-6.5), NCST (+1.5), MINN vs NW Over 40.5, RUTG vs IND Over 46, TCU (-6)
Like I mentioned above, I like to make small parlay bets with the potential to win big, I don’t need to justify all my picks just follow me blindly.
Like I said in my inaugural blog post, I love the fall, I mean is there anything better than waking up hungover and depressed from losing all your bets from the day before just to do it all over again with the NFL. You come down stairs groggy and open the fridge and you see the water sitting there and you think to yourself man this is what I need something to re hydrate and help me feel better… than out of the corner of your eye, oh whats that over there, a nice wheat lager from the local brewery? You say no I shouldn’t I need to hydrate I have work tomorrow, 9 am is too early to drink a beer by yourself in your undies, so you reach for the water. Still distracted by the beer you drop the water on the ground and it rolls away from the fridge. This is the sign you needed, you leave the water there because it’s rolled out of sight and is now somebody else’s problem and you crack open your first beer of the day. It goes down rough at first but after a few sips your right back where you need to be and ready for some football. Also a quick aside, the London football games have done wonders for football fans around the world, now your not just getting up drinking 4 hours before your team plays because you want to, your doing it because you have too. I don’t want to be drunk at 10 am watching the Vikings play the Browns, I have to be because I’m watching the Vikings play the Browns, a subtle but key difference that can be attributed to London games. Now onto picks and what you should be betting.
KC (6-3) @ NYG (1-8): Line KC (-10)
Play: KC (-10). It’s not a secret that the Giants stink at football, Ben Macadoo is busier trying to get a role in the remake of Grease than he is trying to win football games. This Giants team isn’t motivated to play and it will show this week, as they get killed at home by KC.
JAC (6-3) @ CLE (0-9): Line JAC (-7.5)
Play: JAC (-7.5). It has taken me some time to bet on the Jags because well for basically my entire life they have been the joke of the league, but only 7.5 point favorites against the Browns, yes please. The Browns turn the ball over at an alarming rate and the Jags have a ball hawking secondary. I wouldn’t be suprised if they took Hue Jackson out behind the barn mid game and just put him out of his misery.
ARI (4-5) @ HOU (3-6): OU 38.5
Play: Over 38.5. The public loves the under at 68%, which has cause it to drop 4 points from where it opened. I know both these teams stink, and both their offenses are hot garbage but 38.5 is just begging for you to bet the over on.
ATL (5-4) @ SEA (6-3): Line SEA(-3)
Play: SEA (-3). The Public likes ATL in this game and I like SEA, they may have lost Richard Sherman but that defense still has some players on it, and this offense can put up points. Also playing in SEA, where they have had a huge advantage and ATL is traveling across time zones, SEA by 10 at least. And I just realized your getting even odds on SEA to cover, this should be a max bet, if nothing else it’s a great value play.
Bonus Entertainment Play:
Right now there is a bet on mybookie.ag where you can bet on who will rule Westeros at the end of Season 8. This is a situation where you want to pick a value play, the way it’s shaping up everyone thinks its gonna be Jon Snow or Dany who ends up ruling, which is why they are -120 and +200 respectively. There’s no value in that play, yeah you could throw some money on it being Jon Snow and you could be right and you win shit. Now here is what I suggest you do, take a little extra cash and put money on the ruler of Westros to be the Night King. Right now he is sitting at +4000, he has worse odds than No Body at +1000. Last time I check the Night King had a mother fucking zombie dragon, and an entire army of undead soldiers. I mean this guy is the ultimate value play, you put 25 down on him and you could be walking away with a cool 1000 dollars. Now I know the Night King might not be the popular choice, people want to see Jon Snow because he’s handsome and hes an honorable guy, but I’m here to tell those people they are morons. The night king is the ultimate team player, everyone in Westeros is going to die, eventually that’s just the way life works people hate to be the bearer of bad news but people die. The night king brings people back to life, gives them a purpose, sure that purpose is to blindly follow his orders but the alternative isn’t too great either. Plus the night king did’t choice this life, he was made into a White Walker by those ungrateful pricks the Children of The Forest. But no everyone makes him out to be the bad guy, I’m sure he hate the fact that he has to murder everyone and turn them into a zombie, I’m sure he misses his buddies and drinking ale and telling stories with his boys. So how can you not be team night king he’s one of the most sympathetic characters in TV history, and he deserves to rule Westeros, which is why I’m putting my money on the Night King and I hope you do too, it’s about time the good guys win one in Game of Thrones.