Do you smell that? That’s the smell of NFL football being back. It has been 214 Days since we last saw NFL football that mattered, so it’s time to square up with your bookie after a long summer of losing on day baseball and golf in order to get ready to bet some NFL games.
A lot has happened since we last talked including a draft with the most quarterbacks taken in the first round since 1999, including my New York Jets acquiring the Samchise who is slated to be the youngest week one starting quarterback in NFL history. The Cleveland Browns revived the Hard Knocks franchise and have attracted more bets to win the AFC North than all other 3 teams combined. The Raiders decided to trade away their best player because they wanted to pay their coach 100 million dollars instead. OBJ became the highest paid receiver in NFL history, Arron Rodgers became the highest paid player in history, and in two consecutive days we had a new highest paid defensive player in NFL history. On top of that, arguably the best RB in the league has yet to report to his team. Now that we covered what we missed it’s time to look forward to the year ahead of us. I was going to write up a blog for NFL season win totals but I only bet on one total so I didn’t want to do a full write up about it. Whats the one season total I bet on you may be asking? Let me direct you to a blog I wrote previewing the Jets season as a little hint.
Now obviously I wrote that blog before any of the off season moves the Jets made. Before we got the best quarterback in the draft and the savior of our franchise. Before we signed a pro bowl caliber corner in Trumaine Johnson. Before we signed an under utilized running back in Crowell to pair with Powell and before we promoted Jeremy Bates to OC. But still the sentiment remains, a 6 game O/U for the Jets is insulting, especially considering their cupcake schedule. They won five games last year and the team got better and has an easier schedule. I’m not saying they will make the payoffs(however they will) but I am saying they will win over 6 games.
Now onto this weeks slate of games:
Thursday Night Football: Falcons @ Eagles (PK)
This line opened with the Eagles as 4.5 point favorites, since the line has shifted to a pick em. Now I thought this was mostly due to the fact the Big Dick was announced as the starter for the Eagles when originally there was a chance Carson could come back. However upon further research it is just because the public likes the Falcons in this game. The link, shows the line movement against time and shows there is no spike four days ago when Big Dick was named starter. Based solely on the fact that people wearing shirts in the stands will be outnumber 4 to 1 by people who are shirtless I’m going with the Eagles. The environment is going to be crazy, and while I have nothing to base this on I feel like the Eagles have a pretty good record in their home openers.
Titans @ Dolphins (+1.5)
If were being honest with ourselves Miami is kinda terrible. Ryan Tannehill missed all last year with an ACL tear and they lost their best offensive player in Jarvis Laundry. I expect the Dolphins to struggle against the Titans who made the playoffs last year and improved in the off season adding Malcolm Butler and Dion Lewis. Titans (-1.5)
Steelers @ Browns (+4)
This games lines has been affected by the fact that Bell didn’t reportand likely won’t be playing this week. The Steelers opened as 6.5 point favorites and it’s down to 4. Everyone is saying they think the Browns are gonna be good this year, Hard Knocks has peoples believing in the Browns. Jarvis Laundry is cursing out teammates and people are betting on the Browns to win the division. I think they start of strong and open those Bud Light fridges all across Cleveland and win their fans some free Bud Lights…
I’m just kidding, I think the Steelers are gonna roll the Browns. In typical Browns fashion they are gonna get their fans all excited for a season just to get stomped. At least well always have this Cleveland. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWsYwgWAd8E
Bengals @ Colts (-2.5)
Andrew Luck has missed the better part of the last two seasons with a severe injury to his throwing shoulder. That should really be the only thing I need to write to justify my pick but I will dive deeper because the big dog likes to give people reasons for his incorrect picks. This is a team who hasn’t had a viable running attack since Edgerrin James, and have consistently put out one of the worst defenses in the league. Now, I’m a big Andrew Luck guy, I picked him for my fantasy team so you know I believe in him to get back to form. I just don’t think it will be week one that we see that, considering he couldn’t even throw a nerf football three weeks ago.
Now I know that I am a delusional Jets fan, I am extremely optimistic and will defend them till the day I die. However one thing I never do is post on the ESPN game pages, see link. It takes a special type of fan to get involved in discussions on the ESPN game page, and it’s just the type of fan who’s opinion I trust with my bet.
Redskins @ Cardnials (-1.5)
David Kuhn has the following to say:
Bears @ Packers (-7)
Da Bears added Khalil Mack showing everyone that they are ready to win now, except there is just one problem, the rest of their roster isn’t ready to win now. Their whole success will depend on Mitch Trubisky and what the offense can do. Kevin White hasn’t had a healthy season since he’s entered the league and their big off season acquisition is coming of an ACL tear. I think this will be a low scoring game as Rodgers returns to action for the first time since breaking his collar bone for the 13 time in 3 years. Right now the O/U is at 47.5 and I’m going with the under, Bears new look defense will be looking to send a message and should be able to get some pressure on Rodgers but I don’t think Trubisky will light the scoreboard up on the other end. Under 47.5
We will save the Monday night picks for a Monday blog and hopefully get some news from our official Jets correspondent on how to bet the Jet game. With that I say good bye and I think I can speak for all 10 of you who will read this… Thank god football is back.