Week 6 Picks

Alright so we currently sit at 24-16 on the season +5.04 units, with another slate of games to bet this upcoming weekend. Since the supreme court has legalized gambling nation wide I have been eagerly awaiting for the first sports book to open in Pennsylvania. States are permitted to set their own laws when it comes to betting on sports and Pennsylvania has really hand cuffed casinos when it comes to opening sports books. In order to get approval there is a 10 Million dollar licence fee and 3 month waiting period after applying. To add insult to injury for PA casinos Pennsylvania’s neighbors New Jersey and Delaware already have operational sports books. On October 3rd the first two casinos had their licences approved, with the hopes for sports betting operations to begin in November.

As an avid gambler residing in PA this has been extremely frustrating to follow along with especially considering what is happening in New Jersey. For me the biggest step will be when casinos are able to accept bets remotely from the gamblers smart phones, however that isn’t expected until January at the earliest. For anyone living in PA interested in what’s going on in PA Sports gambling news I suggest you check out https://www.legalsportsreport.com/ as they are able to explain it a lot better than the Big Dog. Now I know for most bettors we already use our phones anyway with one of the hundreds of websites, but being able to bet with casinos would make payouts much easier.

So lets figure it out Pennsylvania because if online sports betting isn’t live by NFL play offs I am going to personally shit on the door steps of every member of the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board.

Alright onto the picks:

Buffalo @ Houston (-10)

This is the Bills second time being 10 point under dogs this year and against the Packers they were 9.5 point dogs so clearly Vegas thinks they stink out loud. Obviously they do but it’s not like the Texans are some juggernaut of a team that has just been steam rolling the competition. The play that I really like here is Under 41, Buffalo has gone under 40 points 3/5 games this year, and only the game against the Chargers was one I would consider high scoring. (I know the game against Baltimore was technically high scoring but when one team scores 47/50 points it’s more of a beat down then a high scoring affair.) Houston has also gone Under in 3/5 games and have a stout defensive line going against a Bills O-Line that is 26th ranked in the league by Pro Football Focus. 61% of the bets placed are on the over so I guess people think Deshaun is back to form? I don’t know, but I’m gonna go with my gut and say bet the under. Pick: Under 41 Prediction: Texans 16 Bills 9

Chargers @ Browns (+1)

I was right last week betting the Browns at home against the Ravens and I’m gonna take them again this week as back to back home dogs. The Chargers are 3-2 but their wins have come against Buffalo, San Fran and Oakland, three crap opponents. Cleveland is undefeated at home this year (2-0-1) and like I said last week their defense is very good. Chargers without Bosa again, banged up at both tackle positions on offense. While this game is essentially a pick ’em it is nice to note that Cleveland is 4-1 ATS with their only loss being not covering against Oakland(2.5 point dogs, lost by 3). It feels weird putting your money on a team who went 0-16 last year and 1-15 the year before but I’ve watched a lot of Browns games and they look different than years past. Pick: Browns Moneyline (+100) Prediction CLE 20 LA 16 (I’m revisiting this and wondering to myself if the Browns can really win 2 in a row? I won’t second guess myself though and will keep with Browns Money line.)

The above games are the ones I like and the rest of the games I’m not as high on.

Carolina @ Redskins (PK)

Carolina is coming off a bye and getting Greg Olsen back while the Redskins are coming off a beating on Monday night against the Saints. Panthers also get back Thomas Davis who was serving a 4 game suspension. They are the better team, offensively and defensively, and I think the rest will allow them to come out firing especially on offense. Pick: Panther Prediction Panther 30 Redskins 15

Baltimore @ Tennessee (+2.5)

This is a game that is gonna see a lot of action on the Titans up until kick off (68% of bets as of this writing). I understand why considering they both are 3-2, the Titans beat the Jags and Eagles in back to back weeks before shitting the bed against the Bills. Also when ever you have a home dog in a game that most people would consider even the public is gonna obviously lean that way. The line has moved from Baltimore -1 at the start to BAL -2.5, I just think Baltimore is the better team, I think both have good defenses and sub par offenses but I think the Ravens will pull this one out. Pick: Ravens -2.5 Prediction: Ravens 22 Titans 18

Jacksonville @ Dallas (+3.5)

Dallas has gone under 4/5 games and Jacksonville has gone under 3/5,  both have sub par offenses and good defenses. My brain is telling me this game is going under but my gut is telling me it’s going over. I’ve been talking about following my gut a lot recently and it’s tough not to with it’s size, I’m staying the course and picking the over.  Pick: Over 40.5 Prediction: Jags 24 Cowboys 20

As I said I’m not a huge fan of this weeks slate, even looking ahead to Monday I don’t love that game. In the NFL I don’t like betting on games with home dogs or games with touchdown spread lines, but I’m not gonna NOT bet on NFL football so here we are.

Now if you’ve read my blog before you know that I normally give out 6 or so picks with one of them being the Sunday night game. You may have also noticed that I never give advice on the Patriots games, and that’s because I wouldn’t be caught dead saying anything positive about the Patriots. That is all.

-Big Dog

 

 

 

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