Looking through the games this week and there are some real stinkers on the slate. However I have find games between bad teams a little easier to bet on. When you have a good team against a shitty team everyone expects the good team to win and the spreads are huge so they could still win but maybe not by 14. But with two bad teams more often then not you are just predicting the winners because the spreads are so small. Having said all this I’ll probably be proven wrong today but that’s alright cause we are already 2-1 on the week. Well enough chit chat lets get on to the picks.
San Fran @ Tampa Bay (-2)
Has any team fallen harder this year than the Tampa Bay Bucs have. They started the year 2-0, Fitzmagic was putting up historic passing numbers, they handed the Saints their lone loss. Fast forward to today where they are going back to Jamis after he lost the job to Fitzmagic. Their defense is playing at a historically bad level, and they are on pace for the worst turnover differential in NFL history. Having said all that you might assume I would be taking the 49ers here, but you my friend would be wrong. The part about 2 shitty teams playing each other is it usually ends up being a shoot out because the defense can’t stop anyone. The public is heavy on the under but I really like the over in this one. Pick: 54.5 Prediction: SF 31 TB 28
Jags @ Buffalo (+3)
Has any team fallen harder this year than the Jaguars. To think these two teams were in the playoffs just one year ago and now both teams sit at 3-7 and will likely be picking in the top 7 of the draft. I have been burned time and time again betting on the Jags, expecting them to turn their season around but it never happening. At this point their season is over, meaning this is exactly the time for them to blow a team out of the water, which is exactly what I expect them to do to the Bills. Pick: Jags -3 Prediction: Jags 28 Bills 7. For a Little bonus action I saw the O/U for Josh Allens total passing yards was set at 178.5. I think a more appropriate total for him would be 78.5, hammer the under.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-1)
Cleveland comes to Cinncy and Hue Jackson will be on the sideline, it will be for the Bengals but he will be there regardless. The Bengals are playing poorly right now and I think the Browns will want to stick it to Jackson. If Baker is feeling dangerous again this week the Browns could win by 2 scores. They could also lose by two scores but that’s just who the Browns are. I’m taking the Browns to win outright. Pick: Browns ML Prediction: CLE 24 CINN 14
Steelers @ Denver (+3)
There is not a ton of value in this line considering choosing the Steelers to cover has -120 odds which is shit. I think that’s for good reason though because -3 for one of the hottest teams in the NFL seems to be pretty easy money. I’m not gonna over think this one, I expect the Steelers to roll and cover easily. Pick: Steelers -3 Prediction: Pitt 34 Den 20
Seattle @ Carolina (-3)
I bet on Carolina last week and they shit the bed, but like an idiot I’m going to come back for some more. I think Carolina is a good team, and I expect them to get back to their winning ways. Also maybe if RiverBoat Ron had just sent the game to overtime last week like any sane person would have then they may have covered. But no he decided to go for 2 like a dick head and cost me the chance to win. Pick: Carolina -3 Prediction: Car 24 Sea 18
Packers @ Vikings (-3.5)
Last time these two teams met the game ended in a tie. Both these teams are not where they want to be at this part in the season, being a few games back in the division and fighting for a wild card spot. Playing inside I expect both teams to be able to put up points and I think the total is pretty low considering both teams can score. I like the over here, as we wrap up a great week of football with a good old fashioned shoot out. Pick: Over 47.5 Prediciton: Minn 34 GB 31