Week 1 NFL Picks

Alright, so I think we can all be honest with ourselves and say that Thursday night game kinda sucked ass.  When making my pick, I forgot to take into account that Mitch Trubisky stinks. I said in the blog that I wasn’t as low on him as I felt everyone else was. Now, I’m going to make a snap change of mind based on Thursday night and say he will never be even a serviceable NFL QB and the Bears should tank for Tua.

Thursday night game aside tomorrow is where we will really make our bread as NFL fans. It will be the first of 17 straight Sundays where we will sit on the couch from 12-12. Make sure you get your beer stocked tonight so it will be perfectly chilled by morning. Make sure you get your meals planned in the morning so you take all the choosing out of the process. I am partial to some chicken wings and  chips and guac for lunch. Then, I will finish the game day with some pizza and some sort of pie or cake to be enjoyed during the Sunday night game. Now, the most important part- make sure your phone is fully charged and you have a direct line to your bookie. When the games start rolling and you want to double down on a pick that you made pregame or you want to hedge a game that looks like it’s going the other way, you need to have a way to be able to make your bets. Now if you’re reading you might ask, could I just use my laptop to make my bets? I use an online bookie. The answer is no. If you aren’t also watching a game on your laptop than you are dead to me and don’t understand what this holiday is all about.

Alright let’s make some picks.

BAL (-7) @ MIA (O/U 40)

Miami is a team who is going Sixers level tanking, which is something you don’t see too much in the NFL. They traded away any serviceable player they had for picks and are sending out an absolute garbage team. There is no justification for trading Tunsil other than they are trying to be as bad as possible. The only hope the Dolphins have is if Fitzpatrick has one of his miracle games but I don’t see that happening against a good Ravens team. I think the Ravens will be in control of this game early on and while I normally don’t like betting against a touchdown dog at home, I think the Dolphins are that bad. Pick: BAL -7 Prediction: BAL 24 MIA 10

LAR (-2) @ CAR (O/U 50)

The Rams are the kings of not playing their offensive players during the preseason. This will be the second straight year where they haven’t played any of their main offensive players. Carolina had a similar strategy, at least when it came to Cam Newton, only playing him in one game. Then in that one game he gets injured-I expect a-lot of rust from Newton in this game. I think both these teams have underrated defenses and I expect this one to be low scoring. This could be a biased pick because of what I saw Thursday night from two teams who held a-lot of starters out in preseason, but if you admit you are being biased then it’s unbiased. Pick: Under 50 Prediction: LAR 24 CAR 21

ATL @ MINN (-3.5) (O/U 47.5)

I believe this will be one of the better games of the day with two teams looking to bounce back after completely shitting the bed last season. The Vikings were a very popular pick to make the Super Bowl this time last year and they failed to make even the playoffs. The Vikings went out and bolstered their offensive line in the draft. I think Cousins will improve having a season under his belt in Minnesota. Starting at home I think the Vikings will come out strong and cover here. Pick: Minn -3.5 Prediction: Minn 23 ATL 17

IND @ LAC (-6.5) (O/U 44.5)

Andrew Luck really screwed the Colts this year. Not just the team but the fans. Going into the Season they had high hopes and now they are stuck with watching Jacoby Brissett play quarterback. I still think the Colts will have an okay season, with a solid defense and a good run game behind their offensive line. I think they will keep this game close and I think this one will be low scoring, so I think the under is the play. Look for the Colts to try and control the time of possession to keep Rivers off the field as much as possible. Pick: Under 44.5 Prediction: LAC 24 IND 20

DET (-2.5) @ ARI (O/U 46)

This is one where the public is heavy on the Lions and a pick that could make me look dumb. Having said that I like the Cardnials in this one. I think when they take the field today their offense will look completely different than what we saw in the preseason. Couple that with the fact that the Lions stink has me thinking the Cardnials will win this one. Obviously we’ll take the points but something in my gut is telling me to take Arizona in this one. Pick: ARI +2.5 Prediction: ARI 28 DET 27

SF @ TB (-1) (O/U 51)

Alright I’m going to try and keep these next two picks short and sweet because this is running longer than I thought.

Jameis Winston stinks and Todd Bowles is an emotionless dirt bag who doesn’t know how to coach worth a damn. The 49ers will shred Bowles sorry ass all day long in route to a big win. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs defense performs so poorly that Bowles is fired at half time. He wasted the last four years of my life and that man should be out of the league. He doesn’t deserve to be any sort of coach in the NFL. Shame on you Bucs and shame on you Roger Goddell for letting a man that incompetent be a part of the NFL. Pick: SF +1 Prediction: SF 63 TB 3

PITT @ NE (-5.5) (O/U 49)

I’m hoping Antonio Brown was sent by the Raiders as a mole to take down the Patriots organization from within. In reality, the Patriots just got a top 3 receiver and didn’t have to give up a damn thing. I hope the Steelers come in and just dominate the Pats but I think we all know that won’t happen. I can’t in good faith pick the Patriots so I will suggest taking the under. Last time these two teams met it was low scoring and I feel like that’s normally the case. Pick: Under 49 Prediction: NE 17 PITT 13

-Big Dog

 

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