Me oh my this has been a rough start to the season for the big dog. Just losing week after losing week. Luckily for everyone reading I have a good feeling about week 4. The Jets are on their bye so they can’t ruin my mood, so I can focus all my energy onto winning bets. We’ve learned some lessons over the first 3 weeks and we are going to take those and put them into the super computer that is my brain and spit out winning bets. Lets make some picks.
CAR @ HOU (-4) (O/U 47.5)
Last week I said I would bet on the Panthers until they either won a game or covered a spread because I couldn’t jump ship after losing 8 straight weeks on them. Now that they have justified me staying with them it’s time to bet against them. The Texans have looked solid all year besides the blown lead against the Saints. I think they will load the box and try and force Kyle Allen to beat them which I don’t see him being able to do. I was honestly a little shocked that the Texans were only giving 4 here, seems like it should be more but I won’t complain. Pick: HOU -4 Prediction: HOU 27 CAR 20
MINN @ CHI (-1.5) (O/U 38)
All the Bears need to do in this one is force the ball into Kirk Cousins hands. If the Bears are able to stop Dalvin Cook and make Cousins beat them, they will be in good shape. The Bears have the 5th ranked rush defense, allowing just 68.7 yards per game. This is one of those games where I can just see twitter going crazy while we all collectively watch Kirk Cousins throw his 3rd pick of the game. Pick: CHI -1.5 Prediction: CHI 20 MINN 10
KC(-7.5) @ DET (O/U 54.5)
I’m gonna make this pick very simple for you, this is Pat Mahomes first game played indoors. The Chiefs may cover the total by themselves in this one. Also the Lions are due for a let down. The Lions stink out loud and are somehow 2-0-1. I’m hammering KC here. Pick: KC -7.5 Prediction: KC 42 DET 7
OAK @ IND (-7) (O/U 45.5)
So I think I was wrong about the Colts. I picked against them last week and they handled the Falcons from start to finish last week. Jacoby Brissett is spreading the ball around, having targeted 9 players multiple times last week. I just don’t see how the Raiders keep this one close. After winning week 1 against the Broncos, the Raiders have looked how we all expected them too this year, shitty. The Colts have one of the worst running defenses in the league so as long as they can contain Jacobs they should be able to win easy. If they can get up a score or two early in this one, they should be able to cruise to an easy cover. Pick: IND -7 Prediction: IND 27 OAK 14
Just now realizing all my picks are favorites, so I’ll give a quick underdog pick. CLE +7, they always seem to play the Ravens close regardless of record. Also the Ravens defense has played poorly this year so I think CLE will be able to put some points on the board in this one.
TB @ LAR (-9) (O/U 49.5)
The Giants were able to put 38 points up against the Bucs last week so how many points do you think the Rams can put up? I think this total is low which is why I love the over. I think the Bucs will be able to do their part and put up between 14-24 points and the Rams will be able to cover the rest. The Bucs are giving up 25 points a game, and if the Rams are able to turn over Winston (not a tall task) then the Rams will be able to capitalize on short field positions. Pick: Over 49.5 Prediction: LAR 38 TB 13
SEA (-5.5) @ ARI (O/U 48)
Arizona is a solid 2-1 against the spread but I don’t think that’s the bet here. I’m leaning the Under in this one. I don’t have a real reason for it other then I can feel it in my bones. This is going to be a low scoring affair, book it. Pick: Under 48 Prediction SEA 27 ARI 17
I don’t have a pick right now for SNF, it’s a game where I need to get a feel from the day games before giving my pick. Week 4 in the NFL is gonna be a feels Week, a lot of these picks are just gut feelings.