When you really think about it, it’s quite impressive that I have gone exactly 50% on my picks through the first 6 weeks of the year. If I were to have just blindly bet the underdogs all season long I would be sitting at 61.5% correct. I’m going to blame my mediocre start on the Jets. When you are watching Luke Falk trot out onto the field for 3 straight weeks it’s tough to be in the right mind set to pick winners. Having Luke Falk as your starting QB and seasonal affective disorder have basically identical symptoms. However with Sam Darnold back and the Jets getting their first win of the year I am feeling rejuvenated. I have never seen the board as clear as I do this week. With Darnold back I’m excited about Jets football again and in turn winners WILL BE COMING. Onto the game. We have the line moving from KC -5 to KC -3 at the writing of this blog. Nearly 75% of the money is coming in on KC so maybe Vegas knows something I don’t. I guess they are buying the Vic Fangio and Joe Flacco hype train. Last week I gave out the Titans as one of my picks with the reasoning I didn’t want to put my hard earned money on Joe Flacco and the Broncos. In doing so I forgot about the fact that by betting on the Titans I would be putting my hard earned money on Marcus Mariota. These teams are coming into this one on opposite trajectories, the Broncos are winners of 2 straight and the Chiefs are losers of two straight. The Chiefs offensive line stinks right now, their defense stinks right now and the Broncos defense seems to be hitting their stride. This is a game where I really want to like the Broncos, but I just don’t. I love the Chiefs here, I love them to win this one easy and cover 3 points no problem. This is one where I think water always finds it’s level. Sure the Broncos are hot but you don’t bet based on a small sample size you bet based on the season as a whole and what you’ve seen all year, which is why I’m on the Chiefs. I also like the over in this one but my official pick is Kansas City to cover.
Pick: KC -3
Prediction: KC 31 DEN 20
Big Dogs Betting 