We finally got on the board last week with a quality Jets win over an overmatched Cowboys team. Despite the large number of Cowboys fans in attendance the atmosphere was top notch as the Jets actually looked competent for the first time since week one. This week I expect much of the same – the Patriots game is always the best atmosphere of the season given the animosity between the teams and the opposing fans. Making this a primetime game only amplifies the environment. I’m handicapping a 5-point home field advantage for the Jets today.
As for the game on the field, this rematch has the potential to see the Jets get the season back on course. The week three matchup in Foxborough between the Jets and Patriots can be thrown out. It’s clear now that Luke Falk had no business playing in the NFL. For the rematch tonight, as our man Phil Lynott says, the Boys are Back in Town. Our boys Sam Darnold and Clint Mosley, Jr. will be playing tonight, representing massive upgrades on both sides of the ball for the Jets from round one. And just like the boys from the Thin Lizzy classic were “driving all the old men crazy”, I expect the Jets boys to drive old man Brady crazy tonight. This will be Darnold’s first home game as starting QB against the Patriots. Last season Josh McCown started the home game as Darnold was out with an injury.
Let’s make no mistake about it, Darnold is better than Brady. Tommy looked pedestrian last Thursday in the Patriots game against the Giants. I’m sure he’s jacked up on designer steroids after that poor outing, but still not enough to make up the gap between him and dear old Sammy. Shawn Hochuli returns as official this game, the same referee as the home game against the Patriots last year. Hochuli was a friendly whistle in that game, with the Patriots called for 11 penalties for 105 yards, compared to 8 penalties for 47 yards for the Jets. This year, of all penalties called by Hochuli’s crew, only 40.5% have come against the home team, one of the lowest percentages in the league. This is good for the Jets as the secondary has been awful thus far in 2019. Maybe it can be a bit handsy and get away with some home town cooking from the officials.
If it’s not obvious, we are taking the Jets +10 here. The money line only implies a 22% chance the Jets win the game. I think the true odds are more like 75% the Jets win, so there may be some value there as well. But we won’t be greedy; take the +10 points and root against the Patriots like the good lord intended.
Big Dogs Betting 