There is no day I look forward to more than Thanksgiving, not my birthday, not the 4th of July, not even Christmas. There is no better constructed day then Thanksgiving. You wake up and the only think you have to do that day is drink beer, eat as much food as humanly possible and watch football. Also it’s not just any football it’s Thanksgiving day football so you get the special scoring graphics, you get players eating full Turkey dinners on the field with reporters after, it’s just the best. If you are a Football fan and Thanksgiving isn’t your favorite day of the year then you are a moron. Also we might have the best match ups in recent memory. We have David Blough versus Pro Bowler Mitch Trubisky. We have what might be Jason Garrett’s final game coaching the Dallas Cowboys. Then to finish the night we get to watch the Falcons go for the season sweep of the Saints. People like to talk about how bad Mitch Trubisky is but fail to mention that he was a pro bowl quarterback just last year, begging the question, will he go down as the worst quarterback in history to make a pro bowl? After doing some research I came across a Bleacher Report article outlining the worst players to make a pro bowl since 2000, found here. There are 5 quarterbacks to make the list, Elvis Grbac, Vince Young, Kordale Stewart, Kerry Collins and Derek Anderson. I’m gonna say Trubisky is worse than both Vince Young and Kerry Collins based solely on the fact they made multiple pro bowls in their career. So maybe we can’t definitively say he is the worst quarterback to ever make the pro bowl but I think he is firmly in the top 5 conversation. At least there wasn’t a 2 time Davey O’Brien winner still available when they picked Trubisky, that would look very foolish looking back on the draft. Alright lets get into some picks!
CHI (-6) @ DET (O/U 36.5)
Now I know I just shit on Trubisky in the above paragraph but am I really going to bet on David Blough against the Bears defense? The answer to that question is a resounding no. Not only do I not know who this Jabroni is, but he is basically being sent out to slaughter. For as bad as Chicago has been this year they still have the 6th best defense in terms of DVOA. Actually after hearing this news I’m also going to suggest betting the under in this one. I don’t see how the Lions put any points on the board, and the Bears aren’t gonna score more than 25. This will be a nice appetizer into Thanksgiving betting. Take your money you won from betting every Melo points prop over and put it on Da Bears and the Under. Pick: CHI -4.5 and Under 36.5
BUF @ DAL (-6.5) (O/U 46.5)
Maybe I think the Bills are better than vegas, but the fact they are almost a TD dog in this one seems backward to me. People like to mention the fact that the Bills have only beat teams with losing records but the same can be said for the Cowboys. Their only win of note is against the Eagles, who haven’t looked like world beaters this year. The Bills have been great against the pass this year but have been suspect against the run so look for the Cowboys to feed Zeke early and often. I feel like Buffalo is the square pick but sometimes the square pick is the right one. I also like the over in this game. Pick: BUF +6.5 and Over 46.5
NO (-7) @ ATL (O/U 48.5)
It’s a tough look for a former MVP when he gets benched in favor of Matt Schaubb mid game. Michael Thomas is rolling for the Saints and I don’t see his hot streak stopping in this one. The Falcons had their two week winning streak but have come back down to earth after getting shellacked by the Bucs last week. If Jameis and the Bucs can put up 33 how many points can the saints put up in this one? I like the over here as the only play. I’m also leaning New Orleans but a touchdown is a lot to give up to a team they recently lost to. Pick: Over 48.5