I can’t believe we are down to our final 3 Football Games of the year. It’s always a sad time when football comes to an end but if your a fan of a non playoff team you live for the off season just as much. It’s your time to read through countless mock drafts, you get to look at all the impending free agents and play armchair GM. While the offseason is a great time to dream of better things to come there are still games left to be played and money left to be won.
TENN @ KC (-7)
I think I mentioned it last week but this Titans team reminds me of early era Rex Ryan Jets. Mainly in the way they are winning in the postseason. A defense who is playing incredible, and an offense that is relying heavily on the run and asking their QB to manage the game. At this point in the playoffs my main rooting interest is for the Titans to win the Super Bowl and for Tannehill to throw for under 100 yards in every game. These two teams met in the regular season and it was the last game the Chiefs have lost. When they met in November the Titans were able to hold the Chiefs to field goals as Kansas City attempted 5 in that game. Of those 5 FGs only 1 was an over 50 yard attempt and it was the last one of the game to try and tie it to send it to OT. I don’t love either the spread or the O/U on their own but I will be putting the over into a teaser with the late game. There are some player props in this one that intrigue me that I will be throwing some smaller bets on. For starters I like Tannehill Under 232.5 yards. Even when these teams met in the regular season Tannehill couldn’t break 200 yards. Last bet I am placing on this game will be Kelce over 83.5 yards. When these teams met in November Tyreek Hill had 19 targets. Because of this I think the Titans will try and limit plays from Hill, leaving Kelce to attack their linebackers in one on one situations. I think Kelce has 100 yards easy.
GB @ SF (-7.5)
This one is being billed as the Aaron Rodgers revenge game after the Niners passed on him in the draft 15 years ago.
It might very well be the most ridiculous narrative ever heading into an NFC Championship game but here we are. These two teams met earlier in the year and San Fran absolutely wiped the floor with Green Bay 37-8. While I don’t expect the result to be as large of a margin I think San Fran still wins this one. Their defense is healthy and will be able to win them this one. They are the other part of my 6 point teaser. So it’s SF -1.5 and Over 46 in the KC game. One prop I like is for any TD scorer in the game. You can get even money or better for any player to score a touchdown in this game. Now it comes down to who you think will score. Aaron Jones is +100 which is good but I don’t think he offers the best value. I think taking Devante Adams at +155 is much better value. On the other side of the ball I think taking under 52.5 yards for Raheem Mostert is a smart play. Last week Tevin Coleman got the majority of carries, and Breida was out for their matchup in November so I expect Shannahan to utilize him a good bit in this one.
Alright that will do it for the big dog, I’ll see you all again in 2 weeks for the super bowl, with a prop bet extravaganza.
Also if you are looking for some basketball action, Denver is -1.5 at home with 2 nights rest. Even with a few injuries to key guys I still like the Nuggets here.