The moment we all have been waiting for, Football Is Back, damn that feels good to say. There were many times over the summer where it looked like we might not start the season on time but here we are. Yes the games will look different with teams either going no fans at all or extremely limited capacity, but that doesn’t matter, all that does is that we get to enjoy football being played. Also we have a great match up to start the year and one with a clear cut bet that everyone in America should be placing. Last time these two teams met was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs where the Texans got off to a 24-0 lead against the Chiefs. The Texans went on to lose that game 51-31 after the Chiefs put up 41 unanswered. It was truly one of the more comical things to watch as Bill O’Brien stood on the sideline in bewilderment wondering what happened. I don’t expect the Texans to jump out to such a substantial lead again in this one but I do expect it to be another shoot out. This has been an unprecedented off season, including the fact that there were no preseason games. I think that fact will hurt defenses the most. The lack of live action will lead to more missed tackles, more missed assignments and the defense tiring earlier in the game. The bet you want to make is on the Over. Right now it is at 52.5 (-115) on Fanduel. This is also the best time to start betting as many SportsBooks are offering increased odds to try to entice new gamblers during the football season. Along with liking the over for the game total I like the over for the first half, which is 27(+105). Part of me betting the over is so I’m not the jabroni rooting for no points in the first NFL game of the year. Does that make me a sucker? Maybe but I would rather be a sucker rooting for points then be stick in the mud rooting for an under. Continuing with the Over’s theme, I like the prop bet of Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 81.5(-112) rushing and receiving yards. I think Andy Reid is going to try and get his new weapon the ball early and often to open things up for Hill, Kelce and Hardman. On the other side I like David Johnson Under 71.5(-112) Rushing and Receiving yards. Last year David Johnson looked like he was 1000 years old and for some reason the Texans decided to trade their best player for him and a second round pick. That trade was undoubtedly the worst one I can remember. The Jets were able to get 2 First Round picks for a Safety and Bill O’Brien could only get a second round pick and an over the hill RB for a top 3 WR? It was truly an ultimate display of incompetence. Last bet I like is Brandin Cooks to score a TD at any point during the game (+360). I expect Cooks to get a lot of targets as Bill O’Brien will try to prove to everyone it wasn’t the worst trade ever and that Cooks can make up the slack of losing Hopkins. That will do it for this game, I will be back Sunday with a full slate of picks!
I was looking for a prop bet for the amount of times the word Covid/Corona Virus is mentioned during the broadcast but didn’t see any on Fanduel, therefore I will set my own line. I’m setting the total at 15.5, and I’m leaning over. Although they might try to get all their Covid talk out early and then pretend it’s not a thing. It could go either way.
Picks:
Over 53.5
1st Half Over 27
CEH Over 81.5 Rush/Rec Yards
David Johnson Under 71.5 Rush/Rec Yards
Brandin Cooks Anytime TD Score
Big Dogs Betting 