Week 3 NFL Picks

Alright week 3 is the one where the Big Dog gets back to winning. I thought we had a winner in the Thursday night game but Minshew threw that back breaking pick late in the fourth that kept the game under. Even though that bet didn’t win I still believe that was the right bet to make. I think if those two teams played 10 more times the game goes over in at least 7 of them.

Looking at the board in week 3 has me feeling like Scrooge McDuck jumping into a pile of gold.

I am loving the board and am seeing nothing but winners for this week. Along with winners we have some good matchups to enjoy today. Like the Jets as 11.5 point underdogs to the 1-1 Colts. It’s pretty embarrassing that the Jets are bigger underdogs than the Broncos who will be starting Jeff Driskal today. While I shouldn’t be surprised by the Jets incompetence to start the season this does feel like a new low. The Jets will be suiting up just 4 wide receivers and 4 corner backs against the Colts. Maybe they plan to use one of their 4 quarterbacks on their active roster as a wide receiver. Enough about the Jets lets pick some winners.

LAR @ BUFF ( O/U 47)

Josh Allen has looked like an early MVP candidate this year passing for over 300 yards in his first two games. I guess that’s what happens when you surround your young quarterback with good offensive weapons and a competent coach. The Rams look to have found their mojo again on offense as they look much more like the team that went to the Super Bowl 2 years ago. While I do like both defenses in this game I like the offenses more and I think this one goes over easy. Both these teams will play at a fast pace and I expect this game to be close which always helps the over.

Pick: Over 47

CHI @ ATL (-3)

I was shocked to see the Falcons as 3 point favorites in this one especially considering how their game with Dallas ended last week. Blowing that kind of lead is something that crushes a team and I don’t expect them to bounce back in one week. The Falcons are a team that is cursed and feels destined to continue to find embarrassing ways to lose. I think the Bears win here but I will take the 3 points just to be safe.

Pick: CHI +3

LV @ NE (-6.5)

I think I might be drinking the Gruden Kool Aide after watching them dominate New Orleans on Monday Night last week. Their offense looks great lead by Josh Jacobs on the ground. Derek Carr is settling into his natural role of game manager well and avoiding enough mistakes to win games. I expect the Patriots to struggle to stop Darren Waller with both Hightower and Patrick Chung opting out for the year. The Raiders defense isn’t great so I expect the Patriots to be able to put some points on the board but I don’t think they will cover. Cam Newton has looked rejuvenated this year and there are a lot of teams who have to be second guessing not trying to sign him. Still I am picking the Raiders to cover here. I think 6.5 is just too high of a number for this matchup with home field advantage not being much of a factor with no fans.

Pick: LV +6.5

SF @ NYG (O/U 42.5)

The 49ers are playing with Nick Mullins at QB and will be without Kittle again and without Tevin Coleman and Mosert. This is a team who wants to get the hell off the east coast. The Giants on the other hand will be playing their first full game without Saquon. I expect this to be a very low scoring game. Even without many players on defense the 49ers still have good depth on that side of the ball. That coupled with the Giants ability to stop the run I think will lead to a lot of drives stalling around mid field. You can also pencil in a few Danny Dimes picks as he will try to do too much with Barkley out. I’m expecting a 17-10 game where if you are watching red zone you might not even know it happened.

Pick: Under 42.5

TENN @ MIN (+2.5)

How Minnesota is only a 2.5 point under dog after how they played last week is beyond me. Kirk Cousins had one of the worst games I have ever seen a quarterback have, and I have watched every Jets game for the past 20 years. I think their strategy of getting rid of their best offensive player in Stefon Diggs is turning out to be a poor choice. Then you have the Vikings defense which just looks putrid. They have given up 71 in two games and it honestly should have been more. On the other side you have the Titans who looked to have picked up where they left off at the end of last regular season. Their offense has looked unstoppable and Ryan Tannehill again is playing at a pro-bowl level. It’s amazing what can be accomplished by players who get out from underneath Adam Gase. The scores of their first two games were a lot closer than they should have been and I think this is the game they put together a full 60 minute performance. I expect them to cover 2.5 easily.

Pick: TENN -2.5

DAL @ SEA (O/U 56.5)

I am like a mouse being drawn into a trap by a block of cheese when I see a total this high. I know that it will probably be a loser but I have to bet the over. If you dangle a 56.5 total in front of my face and expect me to bet anything but the over than you don’t know me. If my bookie was smart he would make all of the game totals above 55 because I would bet the over in them regardless of the matchups. What can I say I am a sucker for points.

Pick: Over 56.5

GB @ NO (-3.5)

I have to imagine Vegas wasn’t watching MNF last week when I see a line like this. Drew Brees has looked awful this year. He has no arm strength and looks to old to properly run this offense. It’s a sad thing when a great QB falls off a cliff, but just like we saw with Peyton in his last year, when the arm strength goes there is really nothing to be done. This Packers team has the corners to be able to dare the Saints receivers to beat them deep and even if they somehow do I don’t think Brees can get them the ball. Then you look at the Packers offense which has looked incredible to start the season and again you are left wondering how the Saints are favored. The Packers have put up 40 in both their first two games and have the ability to do that again in this one. I mean if Derek Carr and the Raiders can put up 34 I think the Packers can manage at least that. I LOVE LOVE LOVE the Packers here. I think they easily cover and I will also be sprinkling a little on the money line here.

Pick: GB +3.5, Sprinkle the ML

-Big Dog

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