Week 5 NFL Winners

Another week, another game cancelled by Covid with another one hanging in the balance. This week we have the Broncos and the Patriots game being moved out a week, which in turn affects the Dolphins who were scheduled to play Denver. I don’t think I am out of line when I say at this point the Patriots should have to forfeit the remainder of their games. They should also be stripped of their first and second round picks. That is just how I feel as an unbiased NFL fan. The Titian’s Bills game is also looking to be in jeopardy after another positive test by a Titian’s staffer. Reports came out that the Titian’s practiced at a local high school to get around Covid protocol. While the image of the Titian’s sneaking onto a high school field to run a practice is funny it is also grounds for forfeiting their games. They already had to postpone their last week game, and move their game this week to Tuesday. This screwed up the Bills Chiefs Thursday night game that was going to be electric. If the Titian’s want to play their games and not forfeit they should have to play at the time they are scheduled. Doesn’t matter how many people have tested positive, they should be forced to field a team out of the players and coaches who were negative. 

I for one am shocked that the NFLs Covid policy which they waited till the last possible second to finalize is not working well. Roger Goodell is otherwise such a smart guy.

LV @ KC (O/U 55)

The NFL has finally wised up after 67% of games in the first 4 weeks went over and has adjusted the lines accordingly. During Jon Grudens time with the Raiders their games with the Chiefs have only gone over 50 points one time. This happened primarily because the Raiders failed to put up more than 10 points in 3 out of their 4 match ups. Now looking at these stats you might think I am going under, but I am loving the over here. The Raiders have put up 20 points or more in all of their games this year. They have also allowed 30 or more points to all but one of their opponents this year. Only one Raider game this year would have stayed below this 55 point total. So if we can expect 35+ from the Chiefs and the Raiders can just reach that 20 point mark this game goes over easy. Also shout out Derek Carr for some very deceiving stats. He has a 113.6 passer rating, and 73.6% completion percentage to go with 8 TD and no picks. He might finish top 5 in passer rating and still have questions about his job this offseason.

Pick: Over 55

LAR @ WAS (+7)

I’m a little confused why the Rams are only a TD favorite in this game. The Washington Football Team just benched their starting quarterback in favor of Kyle Allen. It is good to see Chase Young come back but I don’t think he will matter much against a superior Rams team. The Rams look to be back to the team that made the Super Bowl two years back. Their offense looks dynamic and their defense has performed well against any team not named the Bills. Also it’s important to consider the fact that Ron Riveria gives up when his team is down two scores late in games. Their have been multiple games where Ron has sat on timeouts and just waived the white flag when down multiple scores. So as long as the Rams are up 7+ late in the game we don’t have to worry about a backdoor cover with Ron. (Knocks on wood)

Pick: LAR -7

MIA @ SF (O/U 51)

Are the 49ers actually bad? They are sitting at 2-2 with their only 2 wins coming against the Jets and the Giants. They handed Philadelphia their lone win of the season and they got beaten down by Kylar and the Cardinals in week 1. Now obviously they have been hit hard by injuries losing Bosa, Sherman, Solomon Thomas, Deebo, and more. However I don’t think injuries can explain all their struggles. Having said that I do think they will come out on top of the Dolphins. As long as the Dolphins continue to play Fitzpatrick they will continue to suck. Now when I saw this game I thought the total was on the high side for these two teams. The Dolphins defense hasn’t been horrible this year. They held Cam and the Patriots to 21. They held the Jags to 13, and only the Bills and Seahawks were able to put a high number on the board. I think the Dolphins can do a good job against the run to slow down the 49ers and they won’t score more than 21 so I think this game stays under easy.

Pick: Under 51

IND @ CLE (+1)

The Browns are 3-1 for the first time in franchise history and are riding a 3 game winning streak headed into this one. The Colts also come in winners of 3 straight but they have done so on the backs of their defense. The Colts have the top ranked defense in terms of efficiency and besides week 1 have done a great job of limiting scoring. They have allowed the 4th least yards on the ground, surrendering 3.6 YPC. The Browns come into this game riding their running game so something has to give. The Browns have the top ranked rushing offense in terms of both yards and YPC. They are averaging an astonishing 5.9 yards per carry. They will be without Nick Chubb which will hurt and will allow the Colts to focus on stopping Hunt. I like the Colts here for two reasons. One I think they are the better team and I think they have the defense to slow down the Browns. Second they are better value, at +100 (-1). For those reasons I am taking the Colts.

Pick: Colts -1

CAR @ ATL (O/U 54)

Remember when the Jets didn’t hire Matt Rhule because they wanted to control who he hired on his staff? That was fun, just another example of how the Johnsons are the worst owners in the NFL. I would also like to put my hand up and say I was wrong about the Panthers. I said they were gonna be bottom of the league but after 4 weeks they are sitting at 2-2 and playing well. They have utilized my Madden strategy of just getting as many fast receivers as possible and just getting them the ball in open spaces. The Falcons on the other hand are a team that is broken. I said it the past few weeks and it still rings true. This team is broken and the only fix is to fire Dan Quinn. They have pieces on offense but their defense continues to give up points at an alarming rate. So far this year they have given up over 30 to every team they have faced. Because of this the easy bet is the over. While the Panthers defense is better than the Falcons they still aren’t world beaters. I think 34-30 is a likely outcome for this game and we hit the over easy.

Pick: Over 54

MINN @ SEA (O/U 56)

Now I know I sound like a broken record and I could lose all my over bets but this is a game where I love the over. The Seahawks have put up 30+ in every game this year. That trend will definitely continue here. The Vikings over the past two weeks when they first started to utilize Justin Jefferson have put up 30 and 31. The Seahawks have injuries all over their defense which will allow the Vikings to keep pace. Also both teams have the ability to score in a flash so I expect at least 2 40+ TDs. This game starts hot and stays ahead of the over the whole time, hitting easily in the early 4th.

Pick: Over 56

-Big Dog

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