Week 8 in the NFL Season is upon us and with it comes the trade deadline. This is a time where teams like the Jets can get off of their expiring contracts and teams who are contending can add some talent. However even with the deadline approaching the biggest football news comes from college football with the presumptuous number one pick coming down with Covid. Lawrence already missed this week game, where Clemson struggled to beat BC, trailing by 18 at one point. Without playing I think Lawrence was still able to solidify his draft position, which is something I did not expect to happen. I mean if Clemson came out and dominated BC I absolutely would have called Lawrence a system QB. It was also announced that he would be out against Notre Dame so I think I will still keep that in my back pocket in case they are able to win that one. While we weren’t able to see Lawrence play we did get to see the likely second quarterback off the board play in primetime and he did not disappoint. Obvious Lawrence is the goal but Fields would be a nice consolation if the Jets somehow fall out of the top pick. I will also give a fair warning to readers that there are a few picks that I am not proud of, not because I think they will lose but because they will make you feel sick betting them. There are certain teams that when you bet on them you just feel like you need to take a shower after and I have a few of them this week. Anyway lets get to some picks.
IND @ DET (O/U 49.5)
When I saw this total at 49.5 I let out an audible “this can’t be right” because this total is way too high for these two teams. The Lions are sitting at a sneaky 3-3 and are a DeAndre Swift dropped pass away from 4-2. The Lions have given up only 22 and 16 the past two weeks while playing well against the pass. Philip Rivers has looked every bit his age this year so I don’t see the Colts lighting up the scoreboard. I know I give a lot of shit to Drew Brees for looking like a senior citizen but what I’ve seen from Rivers is downright alarming. He looks to be in genuine pain when he throws the football, and I use the word throw loosely. It is much more of a push. While it is difficult to knock a team for being 4-2, their wins have been against the Bengals, Jets, Vikings and Bears. I think they likely win this one but I don’t expect it to be pretty and I expect it to be on the strength of their defense. The Colts will look to control the clock and exploit the Lions weak rushing defense, and will limit the Lions big plays. This game stays under easy.
Pick: Under 49.5
TENN @ CINN (+6.5)
This game opened Tenn -3.5 and is now all the way up to TENN -6.5. I like it all the way up to -7. Cincinnati will be without Mixon which could explain some of the line movement but the biggest thing in favor of the Titians is the Bengals dog shit run defense. They are allowing over 130 YPG on the ground and just traded Carlos Dunlap. Derrick Henry might break the all time record for yards in a game here. I think the Titians absolutely roll the Bengals and I usually like the Bengals from a betting standpoint. While I have sworn off teasers, I will say that I don’t see a scenario where a Titans Under tease loses. It would take it to TENN -.5/Under 57. I mean seriously how does that lose?
Pick: TENN -6.5
LAC @ DEN (O/U 44.5)
Now I was never a huge Drew Lock guy but I don’t think he is as bad as he has looked the past few weeks. I say that because if he truly is as bad as he’s played the past few weeks then he is the worst quarterback in the NFL. While Drew Lock has been looking like he would struggle to win the starting job on a middle school team, Justin Herbert has been playing at a pro bowl level. Coming into the draft I did not understand the Justin Herbert hype. Granted I didn’t watch a ton of Oregon football but in the games I did watch I did not see what he has shown in the NFL especially in terms of running the ball. His best year running the ball he averaged 4.2 yards per carry and granted it is only a 5 game sample but he is averaging 4.8 YPC in the NFL and two rushing TDs. Add that to the 12 passing TDs he already has and he has looked incredible at an early age. Granted it hasn’t converted to wins but it has converted to points. Since his take over the Chargers have failed to score over 20 just one time and that was in his second start. So taking into account that the Chargers are good for 20 minimum and expecting Drew Lock to have a better game leads me to like the over. Also one last thing on Justin Herbert before moving on. Someone needs to get that man and Acne Medication sponsorship because you can’t be the face of an NFL franchise without clearing up your skin first.
Pick: Over 44.5
LAR @ MIA (+3)
From one rookie QB having great early success to another making his first NFL start. This is a hard one to bet and one where you won’t feel good no matter which side you are on. Without knowing what you are getting from Tua it is impossible to feel comfortable betting this game. Having said that I still feel that there is a smart play in this game and that is on the Rams +3.5. While you don’t know what you are getting from Tua you do know what you are getting from the Rams. The Rams offense has been efficient and their defense has played well. I know the Dolphins wanted to put Tua in after the bye but I wonder how smart of an idea it is to make his first NFL start be against Aaron Donald. At least we will be able to see the strength of his surgically repaired hip as he is being thrown around the field. I saw Aaron Donald lift up Robert Quinn like a father lifts up their kindergartener after work, I can only imagine what he will do to Tua.
Pick: LAR -3
DAL @ PHL (-10.5)
I don’t want to pick this game, but I feel a moral obligation to my bank account to pick the Eagles here. Before Ben Dinucci was the quarteback at JMU he was the Quarterback at The University of Pittsburgh. Now I didn’t watch him at JMU but I sure as hell saw him play at Pitt and it was like dumping bleach directly into your eyeballs. I don’t foresee a world where Ben DiNucci is able to cover in this game. The Cowboys defense is probably the worst in the league and I don’t know how they can score any points, especially with Zeke playing how he has been. As good of a story as it would be for Ben to come in and play lights out, this isn’t a movie and there is a reason he was drafted in the 7th round.
Pick: PHL -10.5
Fair warning to everyone still reading, I hate this next pick.
NO @ CHI (+5.5)
Chicago is 5-2 and somehow still 4.5 point underdogs at home. I have been riding the Drew Brees is washed train all year and I can’t stop now, I like the Bears. As bad as their offense has looked throughout the year, their defense has looked just as good. The Weather is expected to be 28 degrees, with 20 MPH winds. Drew Brees can’t push the ball downfield in a dome how do you expect him to do it in harsh conditions. I think the Bears defense can wear down the Saints offense and 4.5 just seems like to many points. I will most likely regret this pick when the Bears are down 17 at half and putting Mitch in to start the third quarter but something in my gut just tells me the Bears are built to win games like this. There is no question that the Saints are the superior team but inferior teams win all the time.
Pick: CHI +5.5