Week 11 NFL Pick

Week 11 is here and the Jets are still without a win. As the season goes on their likelihood for a win becomes less and less. Their best bet might be this week when they have Joe Flacco starting and they are going against the Chargers who love to blow leads. On the other end of the record spectrum you have the Steelers who have not lost yet this year. They have an easy matchup this week against the Jaguars. With only one first round bye in the new playoff format the Steelers will have to work to fend off the Chiefs who only have one loss.

In the NFC you can make the case for 4 or 5 teams being able to secure that coveted bye. The big question mark in the NFC is how the Saints will be after Drew Brees broke every rib last Sunday. The Saints announced Tysom Hill would be the starter in a move that caught many off guard. I’ll be interested to see if they run their normal offense or run an offense tailored to Hills strengths. I expect the Packers to be the ones who eventually end up with the bye. They play in the weakest division of the teams in contention for the bye, and have an easy remaining schedule. I guess we will just have to see how it plays out, all I’m rooting for now is Trevor Lawrence in green and white next season. Let’s pick some winners.

TENN @ BAL (O/U 50.5)

These two teams come into this game looking to get back on track after struggling over the last few weeks. The Titans come in losers of 3 of their last 4 and Baltimore losers of 2 of their last three. The Ravens have been struggling offensively for most of this year not looking like they did last year at all. Their struggles run so deep that Lamar Jackson said that opposing teams are calling out their plays pre snap. They come up against a Titian’s team that has not be great defensively this year, giving up 30 points in over half their games. The Ravens defense has been one of the best in the League this year and I expect the Titian’s to struggle to put a lot of points up. The Ravens have the Cornerbacks with the ability to stay with these Titian’s receivers and make life difficult for Tannehill. I think the 50.5 total is too high here and I fully expect this game to stay under. If the Ravens can get a lead early and force the Titian’s to be one dimensional they should be able to roll and keep this game under.

Pick: Under 50.5

ATL @ NO (-3.5)

I am very interested to see how Sean Payton adapts his offense with Tyson Hill at QB. Will we see an offense like the Ravens run where you have a lot of designed QB runs and option plays? Or will they stick with their current scheme and expect Hill to adapt. Despite the uncertainty with the Saints offense I still like them to cover here. The Falcons are a bad team who are just going through the motions before they are eventually blown up at seasons end. I fully expect the Saints to be able to cover easy here.

Pick: NO-3.5

CINN @ WFT (-1.5)

I can make this very easy for everyone, the Washington Football Team should not be favored in an NFL game against a team outside their division unless its the Jets or Jags. The Bengals have been frisky all year and have done a great job keeping games within the spread. They are the better team here and will win easily. As always we will take the points to be safe but this is an easy bet in my mind.

Pick: CINN+1.5

DAL @ MINN (O/U 49)

I like the under here and it’s really just because I hate the Cowboys offense. I think the Vikings could easily put up 30 on this porous Cowboys defense, but I don’t think the Cowboys offense can break double digits. The Cowboys have failed to score more than 10 points in 3 of their last 4 games and its not like they were up against good defenses. They scored 10 against Arizona, 3 against Washington and 9 against Philly. I think the Vikings take an early lead and just pound the ball with Dalvin Cook until the Cowboys are beaten into submission.

Pick: Under 49

KC (-7.5) @ LV

I don’t see a scenario where the Chiefs lose twice in one year to the Raiders. In their previous matchup the Raiders were able to convert big plays through the air and limit the Chiefs big plays. During Andy Reid’s time with Kansas City they have never lost both games against the Raiders. In years where they have lost once to the Raiders they beat them the next matchup by an average of 14.5 points. I expect this trend to continue and for the Chiefs to cover the 7.5 easily.

Pick: KC -7.5

-Big Dog

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