Championship week is upon us. We couldn’t ask for any better matchups. We have four teams all within the top five of offensive efficiency. The old saying used to go that Defense wins championships. But clearly that is not the case anymore. The Packers showed last week what a top-five offense can do against the number one defense. These are also some of the best quarterback matchups I can remember in recent championship games. On the NFC side you have the old guard Brady against Rogers. Then on the AFC side you have the new guard Mahomes verse Allen. All right enough chitchat let’s move onto some picks, or should I say winners.
TB @ GB (-3) (O/U 53)
The battle of the Bays in the NFC championship. This game is going to be played in football weather. When I think of championship football I think of cold and snow and that’s what we have here today. These two teams met earlier in the season with the Bucs dick slapping the Packers 38-10. However this is a different Packers team. The Packers defense has been playing much better recently, led by the outstanding play of Jaire Alexander at corner. I do still think that the middle of that defense is soft as baby shit and is susceptible to give up big plays on the ground but I don’t know if playoff Lenny is the one who can exploit it. Now as much as I hate betting on Tom Brady that is where my brain is telling me to put my money. Brady in the playoffs in snow, I can just envision him getting the win today. I think the Bucs defense will be able to stop the Packers rushing attack better than the Rams did last week which will go a long way. The Bucs also proved they can at least slow down Rogers and if they are able to turn him over like they did in their regular season matchup I think they win outright. Still I think the bet here is on the Bucs to cover the 4 point spread. I also like the under, the Bucs love to run on first down which helps keep the clock moving. I also think the snow will hinder big plays offensively which should help keep this game under. If you want free money I think a Bucs under teaser is an easy winner but we will take each individual bet.
Picks: Under 53, TB +3
BUFF @ KC (-3) (O/U 54.5)
As strange as it is to type out I absolutely love the Bills in this game. For starters the Chiefs don’t cover. For whatever reason they are terrible against the spread. The Bills on the other hand have been great against the spread this year. Also we don’t know what Mahomes is going to look like here. We saw him leave with a concussion last week that then turned out to not be a concussion? But before he left he was hobbling around with turf toe. He is still struggling with that and I think that is what scares me the most. His mobility was severely lacking last week against the Browns before he went out and I expect the same here against a better Bills defense. I also expect the bills to be able to move the ball against this Chiefs defense. They met earlier in the season and Josh Allen had a rough game but I expect I better performance today. Also because of the Mahomes injury I like the under in this game. The bills Defense has been playing very well over the past 10 weeks and I think will be able to limit the Chiefs scoring. I think this will be a a 24 to 21 game that comes down to a late field goal. Again I think free money is to be had with a Bills under teaser but we will take both bets because we have sworn off teasers.
Pick: BUFF +3, Under 54.5