The biggest trap with week 2 is that we make sweeping generalizations based on what happened in week 1. It is something I do every year and something I will likely do again this year. If a team I thought was going to be good won week 1 you bet your ass I will be betting them again in week 2. If a team I thought would suck lost I will be betting against them this week. Week 2 is the ultimate confirmation bias week when it comes to betting. Keeping this in mind let’s get into the picks.
NO (-3.5) @ CAR
The Saints are coming off a beat down of the Packers on a neutral site and the Panthers are coming in after escaping with a home win against the Jets. You can’t have watched the Panthers Jets last week and came away impressed with Carolina. As soon as the Jets started turning up the pressure and taking away the dump off to CMC Darnold looked lost. The Saints will be able to turn up the heat with their front and get Darnold uncomfortable. As long as they can limit CMC check downs they should win by 20. The Panthers defense is better than I expected but with a good Saints offensive line they should do a better job of limiting pressure than the Jets did. I expect 1-2 Darnold turnovers and an easy Saints win.
Picks: Darnold over .5 INTs, NO -3.5
LV @ PITT (O/U 46.5)
Both these teams come in outright winners in week 1 after both getting over a FG. While I was impressed with the Raiders offense I think I was more impressed with their defense. They got consistent pressure and timely turnovers. The Steelers defense looked to be in mid season form and limited the Bills better than I ever expected. Their front made the Bills line look like Swiss cheese and I think they can do that all year if they stay healthy. I’m taking the under here and I think the Steelers unders will be a solid bet all year. Only thing I’m worried about is a defensive td throwing a wrench into this bet.
Pick: Under 46.5
I’m trying out a new bet that I might include weekly. We are gonna tease the two biggest favorites weekly. This week it’s the Browns at home against the Texans and the Bucs home against the Falcons. We’re teasing 6 points taking it to CLE -7.5 and TB -6.5. The Tampa pick is an easy one, if the Bucs didn’t turn it over 3 times they beat the Cowboys by 15 last week. The Falcons looked like absolute dog shit against the Eagles. Their offensive line played very bad and their defense looked to be on par with where they have been the past 3 years which is bottom of the league. For the Browns game I am banking on the Jaguars being terrible and that’s why the Texans looked so good last week. The Browns looked to be who we thought they were keeping it close with KC just not able to hang onto their lead. The Browns are a good team and should win this game by 40.
Pick: Tease TB -6.5,CLE-7.5
CINN @ CHI (-1.5)
I couldn’t have been more right about the Bears last week. If it wasn’t for a last second Rams TD we would have been spot on with our picks last week for Sunday Night. I am sticking with the stragety of betting against Matt Nagy and taking Cincy here. I guess the drop issues with Jamar Chase were slightly blown out of proportion. Really would have been nice to know he could still catch the ball before fantasy football drafts. As long as the Bears start Dalton they are playing with one hand tied behind their back. The Bears have some good pieces on offense in Montgomery, Robinson and Kemet. They just need to get Nagy out of there and then roll with Fields. Until then I will keep betting against them.
Pick: CINN +1.5, Spinkle the ML