Man I must really hate myself to be a fan of both the Jets and the Pitt Panthers. The Jets seem to be cursed and Pittsburgh is stuck in a state of mediocrity. How does a 17.5 point underdog, kick a field goal from the 1 yard line when they are down a touchdown. Not only was it the softest move known to man, it also was just a stupid decision. The field goal would have cut the lead to 4 meaning they would have still needed to score a TD later in the game to win. Also what the hell was that play calling from the 1. Two passes then and a QB run? Just jam the ball down Penn State’s throat and pick up the one yard. Hell, run a QB sneak on 4 straight plays, what do you have to lose. Just a gutless performance by Narduzzi, who is firmly on the hot seat. Enough about how shitty Pittsburgh is let’s make some picks.
Before I get to the picks, a quick note on Thursday Night Football. Right now I am 0-2 in Thursday Night Football games but I don’t take the blame for my loss on the Carolina pick. I watched the Panthers vs Rams game and while Cam Newton looked bad in that one, it was nowhere near as bad as he looked against the Bucs. I mean there is clearly something wrong with the guy, whether it be his shoulder or foot, he doesn’t look right. Add in the fact that he refuses to run the ball and you have yourself a very mediocre quarterback. After watching that game and losing money on the Panthers I have vowed to myself to not bet on the Panthers again. I’m pretty sure last year I bet on them 6 straight weeks, and they happened to be the same 6 weeks where they lost every game. I have not had good luck with them and I am officially OUT on the Panthers.(Unless I really like the spread)
SF(-1) @ CIN (O/U 46)
The Bengals game last week was one where I didn’t get to watch much but I was surprised to see them keeping it as close as they did against the Seahawks. This line opened at SF -2.5, but the majority of bets thus far have come in on the Bengals. While I normally like to fade the public, I think the fact that the Niners are favored is crazy town. I thought the spread was gonna be CIN -3, considering the Niners benefited last week from 2 pick sixes by Jameis. I am still not sold on Jimmy G and think the Bengals will be able to put up points in this one. I like the Bengals to win outright, but we will take the points just to be safe. Pick: CIN +1 Prediction: CIN 24 SF 21
LAC (-1.5) @ DET (O/U 48)
Normally when I go through and handicap the games I am very close to what the actual line is. I tend to be more conservative when it comes to big spreads but for the most part I’m within half a point on most games. This is one where I was off by over 2 points, and I’m not sure if I’m over valuing the Chargers or vegas is over valuing the Lions. I don’t think the Lions are a good team, in fact I think they are quite bad. I mean they blew a 18 point lead to the Cardinals last week, and how can anyone in good conscience bet on a team like that. Pick: LAC -1.5 Prediction: LAC 27 DET 13
MINN @ GB (-2.5) (O/U 43)
A 43 point total seems very low for this game. I know the Packers only scored 10 last week but they still do have Aaron Rodgers at QB. Also in the 22 times that Rodgers has met the Vikings in the regular season, 14 of those games have gone over 43 total points. I think the Packers defense is much improved this year but still I think 43 is too low a number for a game with two all time great quarterbacks playing each other. Pick: Over 43 Prediction: GB 31 MINN 28
ARI @ BAL (-12.5) (O/U 46.5)
There are two games this week with over 10 point spreads and this is one of them. If you read my blogs you’ll know I don’t like taking big favorites because even if they play well and win easily, winning by 2 TDs is tough to do. However I also can’t in good faith put my money on the Cardinals again not after they almost caused me to have a heart attack during last weeks game. So what we are left with is the total, and I like the Under here. I think BAL is going to shut down Arizona and as long as they don’t put up 59 points again I think the Under is the safe play. Pick: Under 46.5 Prediction: BAL 38 ARI 3
CHI (-2.5) @ DEN (O/U 40)
To me this is an easy game to bet on when you say the matchup out loud. “Joe Flacco, playing against a Bears defense coming off a loss” Last year coming off of loses, the Bears defense allowed, 17, 38(came against NE), 10, and 6 points to their opponents the following week. Also besides the Pats game, they won all their games following a loss by 7 points or more. Joe Flacco stinks, and I think the Bears defense has a chance to score at least 2 touchdowns on their own in this one. Pick: CHI -2.5 Prediction: CHI 24 DEN 10
PHI (-2) @ ATL (O/U 52.5)
The Eagles started out slow last week against the Redskins last week with poor tackling on defense and bizarre play calling on offense. While I do like the Eagles in this one I think the better play is the Under. I think Atlanta will struggle to score all game long and 52.5 is a high number in my opinion. Also I bet the under in SNF last week and it hit, so we are gonna ride the hot pick. Pick: Under 52.5 Prediction: PHL 33 ATL 10
-Big Dog
Big Dogs Betting 