Week 7 is here and only one team remains defeated and that is your New York Jets. I also think we have to start asking the question about whether this is the worst team in NFL history. They have the worst point differential through 6 weeks for a team with a positive turnover differential in the Super Bowl era. The 2nd and 3rd worst point differentials in the NFL when combined is equal to that of the Jets. They aren’t just losing games they are losing in historic fashion which is something you really have to respect. Anyways let’s make some picks.
Also a fair warning to anyone who is planning to fade my picks today, I have busted back out the gambling notebook. I thought it got thrown away because my dog chewed all 4 corners of it, but I found it this past week and I am back to my winning ways.
GB @ HOU (+3)
Green Bay is 5-0 in Houston all time and Aaron Rodgers has done a good job throughout his career when coming off of losses. I don’t think the Packers are as bad as they showed last week against the Bucs. I mean it’s not often you see a team give up 38 unanswered in an NFL game. I think the Packers come out and cover easy here. The Texans have looked better over the past two weeks but that’s better compared to losing by double digits. They played the Titians close last week but with the spread only sitting at 3, I think the best bet is on the Packers. Also I know I talk about how bad the Jets are but the Texans might be in the worst spot of any team right now. Going into the year they thought they were gonna be competing for a title, and mortgaged their future to do so. They are now sitting at 1-5 with no first round picks the next two years. I know Bill O’Brien was a terrible coach but he may have been the worst GM in the league. I mean what GM candidate would want to come to Houston with their current roster construction and draft capital. Yes they have Desean but that is really it, the defense is void of young talent and the offensive line has been a problem for the past 4 years. Anyway, give me GB-3.
Pick: GB -3
CAR @ NO (-7)
The Saints will be without Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in this one, which for a team that has already looked out of sync offensively is not an ideal situation. I’d expect we will continue to see Tysom Hills usage increased as Drew Brees continues to struggle to generate big plays. While the Saints are 3-2, they are one doink away from being 2-3 and competing with the Falcons for last place in the division. Along with the offense looking bad all year, the Saints defense is what has surprised me the most. Their defense has allowed a 108.2 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, and their matchup this week doesn’t get much easier with the Panthers. The Panthers are a team I owe an apology to, because they have looked much better than I thought they would this year. They have the 8th most passing yards in the NFL and a lot of that success can be attributed to two ex Jets, Robby Anderson and Teddy Bridgewater. The Jets let Robby walk in free agency and he is now sitting at 2nd in the league in receiving averaging 94 yards per game. It really is amazing what getting away from Adam Gase can do for a player. Anyway I think the Panthers will be able to keep this game very close and I might even sprinkle the money line here. I think 7 points is way to much for this game and I think the Panthers cover easy.
Pick: CAR +7
PIT @ TENN (-1.5)
This is the 5th time in NFL history that undefeated teams have met in week 7 or later. The winner of the previous 4 went on to make the super bowl. Now while I don’t think either of these teams are going to be making the super bowl, it is important to note the historical significance of a game. I think the easy bet here is on the Steelers. While the Titians are undefeated they haven’t been overly impressive besides their win against the Bills. The Steelers have looked great all year especially defensively. I think they have the front 7 (even without Devin Bush) to be able to slow down Derrick Henry. If they are able to do that, Ryan Tannehill proved last year during the playoffs that he struggles when the ground game can’t get going. I like the Steelers to win outright but as always we will take the points.
Pick: PITT +1.5
KC @ DEN (O/U 45.5)
We will get our first snow game this year before Halloween, so much for global warming am I right? The Broncos come into this one after winning one of the weirdest games of the year against the Patriots. If yo would have told me there would be an NFL game where only one touchdown was scored and the teams combined for 8 field goals I would have bet my life that the New York Jets would have been one of the teams playing in it. Drew Lock came back from injury last week and put together one of the worst performances I have ever seen. I think Lock will bounce back here because there really isn’t anywhere to go but up. I think the Chiefs will have the offensive explosions I have been waiting for and because of that I like the over. I am also excited to see how the Chiefs use Bell in this one. I still believe that he isn’t the same player he was with the Steelers but going to a team that can utilize his current skill set will be a huge plus for him. I’d expect to see some two back sets, maybe motioning Bell out to the slot, just doing all the things Gase refused to do.
Pick: Over 45.5
SEA @ ARI (+3.5)
Russell Wilson is 6-1-1 in his career at Arizona. I am still not sold on the Cardinals and with the Seahawks coming off a bye I think they cover easy.
Pick: SEA -3.5
Also if you want to listen to my nasally voice bitch about the Jets and hear Matt Endres and myself give you losing gambling pick give my podcast a listen. Or don’t I can’t make you do anything, but I did spend like 5 minutes making our logo so at least appreciate that.
Big Dogs Betting 